CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-07-03T18:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-03T18:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47302/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2026-07-03T18:36Z. It is also seen to the NW in GOES CCOR-1 and to the NNE in STEREO A COR2. Only the first couple of frames in SOHO LASCO C2 are seen in real time due to a data gap between downlink periods. This CME is associated with an M6.7 class flare from AR 14479 (N15W58) that peaked at 2026-07-03T18:11Z. The flare is best seen in SDO AIA 131. A large EUV wave and wide opening field lines are also seen in SDO AIA 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-06T07:43Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-07-03 22:41
 - Time at C2: 2026-07-03 18:36
 - Radial speed: 780.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 47 deg
 - Eruption location: N08W56
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 640.00 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2026-07-06 07:43 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.12 hours)
Lead Time: 35.33 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2026-07-04T20:23Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy